US Frame Factory · Paid Media Economics

Breakeven Explorer

Move the ad spend, AOV and profit-target dials and watch the breakeven line move with them. Every number is monthly and recalculates live.
Monthly model| Source: Business Metrics & Forecasting| AOV basis $388.28
Section 01

Your inputs

Three dials drive everything below. Spend and AOV move both lines; the profit target moves only the second one.
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Product margin, shipping and card fees are per-order variable costs. Monthly overhead is the fixed cost the paid channel has to carry. These are the sheet’s baseline figures — change them here if the underlying economics move.
Contribution / order
$92.81
Gross profit left after product cost, shipping and card fees
Breakeven CPA · variable only
$92.81
The absolute ceiling. Ignores overhead, so never plan to it
Profit ceiling
23.90%
Highest profit target these unit economics can reach at any spend
Overhead to carry
$3,750
Fixed monthly cost spread across whatever orders you buy
Section 02

Where breakeven sits at every spend level

Spend runs left to right. Hover anywhere for the full readout at that spend — click to lock it in. The two lines are the two models: survive, and hit the profit target.
Breakeven MER — blended return you must hit
Higher line = harder to hit. Both fall as spend rises because overhead spreads over more orders.
Break even — variable + fixed cost
Target — variable + fixed + 10% profit
Your selected spend
Breakeven by monthly ad spend Two curves showing the performance required to break even and to hit the profit target across a range of monthly ad spend. Full figures are in the scenario table below.

Break even

Variable cost + fixed overhead. Profit lands at zero.
6.14Blended MER required
Orders needed126.6
Revenue needed$49,157
Max cost per order$63.19
Gross contribution$11,750
Less ad spend + overhead−$11,750
Profit$0

Target — 10% profit

Variable cost + fixed overhead + the profit you want to keep.
10.57Blended MER required
Orders needed217.7
Revenue needed$84,523
Max cost per order$36.75
Gross contribution$20,202
Less ad spend + overhead−$11,750
Profit kept$8,452
Section 03

The same thing as a scenario grid

Every figure the chart draws, at round spend levels. The highlighted row is the spend you have selected.
Break even — variable + fixed Target — 10% profit
Ad spend OrdersRevenueMax CPAMER OrdersRevenueMax CPAMER
Section 04

How it is calculated

Straight out of the breakeven sheet. Nothing here is estimated or modelled beyond the inputs above.
Contribution per order  =  (AOV × Product margin) − Shipping − Card fees
Break even orders      =  (Ad spend + Overhead) ÷ Contribution per order
Target orders           =  (Ad spend + Overhead) ÷ (Contribution per order − AOV × Profit %)
Revenue                  =  Orders × AOV   ·   Max CPA = Ad spend ÷ Orders   ·   MER = Revenue ÷ Ad spend
The two things worth noticing
  • Breakeven gets easier as you spend more. Overhead is fixed, so at $8,000 it is spread over 127 orders and at $16,000 over 213. Required MER falls from 6.14x to 5.16x — the same media performance is worth more profit at higher volume.
  • The profit target is the expensive one. Carving out 10% of revenue as profit does not raise the bar by 10% — it raises required orders by 72%, because the profit comes out of a contribution margin that is only 23.9% of revenue to begin with.
What the model assumes
  • All revenue is attributed to paid. The MER figures treat total revenue as coming from the ad spend. Any real organic or repeat revenue sits on top and makes the true bar easier than shown.
  • Margin is a blended average. A shift in product mix moves the whole chart — the pony wall SKUs and the clip SKUs do not carry the same margin.
  • Profit target is a share of revenue, matching the sheet. That is why there is a hard ceiling: above 23.90% no amount of spend can get there.
  • Overhead is the paid channel’s share only. If it should carry more of the business, raise it in the assumptions panel.