US Frame Factory

Breakeven Explorer

Monthly model| Source: Business Metrics & Forecasting| AOV basis $388.28
Your inputs
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$1K$8K$15K$22K$30K
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Per-order variable costs plus the fixed monthly overhead the paid channel has to carry. These are the sheet’s baseline figures.
Contribution / order
$92.81
Profit ceiling
23.90%
Breakeven CPA · var. only
$92.81
Overhead to carry
$3,750
Breakeven MER — blended return you must hit
Higher line = harder to hit. Both fall as spend rises because overhead spreads over more orders.
Break even — variable + fixed cost
Target — variable + fixed + 10% profit
Your selected spend
Breakeven by monthly ad spend Two curves showing the performance required to break even and to hit the profit target across a range of monthly ad spend. Full figures are in the scenario table below.
Break even
6.14Blended MER required
Orders126.6
Revenue$49,157
Max CPA$63.19
Profit$0
Target — 10% profit
10.56Blended MER required
Orders217.6
Revenue$84,508
Max CPA$36.76
Profit kept$8,451
Section 01

The same thing as a scenario grid

Every figure the chart draws, at round spend levels. The highlighted row is the spend you have selected.
Break even — variable + fixed Target — 10% profit
Ad spend OrdersRevenueMax CPAMER OrdersRevenueMax CPAMER
Section 02

How it is calculated

Straight out of the breakeven sheet. Nothing here is estimated or modelled beyond the inputs above.
Contribution per order  =  (AOV × Product margin) − Shipping − Card fees
Break even orders      =  (Ad spend + Overhead) ÷ Contribution per order
Target orders           =  (Ad spend + Overhead) ÷ (Contribution per order − AOV × Profit %)
Revenue                  =  Orders × AOV   ·   Max CPA = Ad spend ÷ Orders   ·   MER = Revenue ÷ Ad spend
The two things worth noticing
  • Breakeven gets easier as you spend more. Overhead is fixed, so at $8,000 it is spread over 127 orders and at $16,000 over 213. Required MER falls from 6.14x to 5.16x — the same media performance is worth more profit at higher volume.
  • The profit target is the expensive one. Carving out 10% of revenue as profit does not raise the bar by 10% — it raises required orders by 72%, because the profit comes out of a contribution margin that is only 23.9% of revenue to begin with.
What the model assumes
  • All revenue is attributed to paid. The MER figures treat total revenue as coming from the ad spend. Any real organic or repeat revenue sits on top and makes the true bar easier than shown.
  • Margin is a blended average. A shift in product mix moves the whole chart — the pony wall SKUs and the clip SKUs do not carry the same margin.
  • Profit target is a share of revenue, matching the sheet. That is why there is a hard ceiling: above 23.90% no amount of spend can get there.
  • Overhead is the paid channel’s share only. If it should carry more of the business, raise it in the costs panel.